Trump breaks 50% among decided voters

Donald Trump

Among voters who are certain how they will vote, Donald Trump now has more than 50 percent support, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday.

It’s the first time any candidate has crossed the 50 percent mark, said the pollster, which also found Trump taking the lead nationally for the first time in two weeks.

Rasmussen’s survey, based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 likely U.S. voters, has Trump leading by 3 points, 45 to 42 percent. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll, tracking about 3,000 eligible voters, has Trump up by 5 points nationally.

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The shift toward Trump nationally in the wake of the announcement Friday by FBI Director James Comey that the bureau has reopened its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private email server also is reflected in new polls in battleground states, including some thought to be solidly in Clinton’s column.

In Virginia, Trump now leads Clinton by 3 points, erasing a 12-point deficit in early October, according to a Hampton University Center for Public Policy poll released Wednesday.

Clinton had a 2-point lead before the email news story broke on Friday.

Trump also has overtaken Clinton in North Carolina, where the WRAL News poll released Tuesday shows him with a 7-point lead after trailing by 2 points three weeks ago.

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll released Thursday, which has predicted the last three presidential elections, shows Trump and Clinton tied after Clinton had led by 4 just one week ago.

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Brexit redux?

Investors Business Daily notes that most analysts still believe Clinton will win, but IBD cautions that in the final week before Britons voted on whether to leave the European Union, seven out of nine polls said “remain” would win, with one survey showing a 10-point lead.

Trump, noting that “leave” prevailed 52-48 percent, has vowed to pull off “Brexit times five.”

Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which runs the IBD/TIPP poll, said that in both the Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential campaign, “a surge in populist sentiment has occurred within each electorate.”

IBD pointed out that on “both sides of the Atlantic, a large and growing share of voters has felt ignored by the political establishment and views immigration and globalization with suspicion.”

“Brexit pollsters failed to realize how strongly working class voters would turn out to vote against staying in the EU.”

That sentiment was reflected in a segment of Michael Moore’s new documentary “Trumpland” in which the filmmaker, though he opposes Trump, predicted working-class voters will deliver the “biggest ‘F— you’ ever recorded in human history” on Election Day.

Democratic analyst Pat Caddell, a pollster for President Jimmy Carter, said this year’s election is beginning to look like 1980, when polls showed Carter with a sizeable lead but Ronald Reagan won a 40-state landslide.

Caddell told the Fox Business Network’s Stuart Varney on Monday that even before the FBI announcement Friday, he saw a highly significant portion of the population – about 12 to 15 percent who view both Clinton and Trump unfavorably – “moving against the status quo.”

“Now, with this latest information, I believe that is the popper, and I think this thing could open up significantly,” Caddell said.

Meanwhile, the Real Clear Politics average of seven presidential tracking polls reflects the Trump surge, showing Clinton leading Trump by just 1.9 points after being up 7.1 points on Oct. 17.

RCP also shows state races tightening. Clinton’s lead among lean/likely states is down to just 46 electoral votes compared to 146 on Oct. 29.

Trump’s lead among independents has increased to 10 points, 45-35 compared to 41-34 five days earlier, topping Mitt Romney’s margin in 2012, according to IBD/TIPP. The tracking poll had Romney over Obama among independents 52-46.

NBC’s Chuck Todd believes the “Comey effect” is helping Trump and the Clinton campaign is “nervous” and “starting not to trust even their own numbers.”

Since the Comey announcement, IBD/TIPP found Trump’s support among women has improved 5 points.

The Trump surge was dramatically reflected in the Washington Post/ABC News survey that had Clinton leading by 12 points a little more than a week ago but behind by 1 point in the survey released Tuesday. Thursday’s tally has Clinton up by 2, which is within the margin of error.

The Clinton campaign dismissed the shift toward Trump to “bad polling,” Politico reported.

The CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday had Clinton leading by 9 a little over two weeks ago but up by only 3 on Thursday.

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